It’s the hope

It’s not the despair, Laura. I can stand the despair. It’s the hope!

John Cleese as Brian Stimpson in Clockwise

I am emotionally strongly invested in the Yes campaign for Scottish independence. I can wish and hope for a Yes vote, and try to persuade wherever I can. But in order to believe that Yes will win, one also has to believe that the current opinion polls are completely wrong.

I’m not naive: it’s a stretch. In retrospect it may seem almost delusional. But there is precendent for this in recent Scottish politics: in the 2011 election, the SNP was not predicted to win as large a share of the vote as actually happened. Could the same be happening now? I don’t know, but I’m finding James Kelly’s political and polling analysis blog Scot Goes Pop! fascinating reading. He is a Yes supporter, but his insights are rational. At this point, I can’t believe Yes will win, but he is helping to keep my hope alive.

Here he is talking about the polling methodologies and the history of Scottish devolution votes:

(The footage of the man in the elevator around 9 minutes in is of particular relevance in the last few weeks before the referendum. The ground campaign, momentum, and visibility all matter a great deal.)