{"id":2708,"date":"2014-09-02T23:01:05","date_gmt":"2014-09-02T21:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sunpig.com\/martin\/?p=2708"},"modified":"2014-09-04T01:22:41","modified_gmt":"2014-09-03T23:22:41","slug":"its-the-hope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sunpig.com\/martin\/2014\/09\/02\/its-the-hope\/","title":{"rendered":"It’s the hope"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nIt’s not the despair, Laura. I can stand the despair. It’s the hope!\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

John Cleese as Brian Stimpson in Clockwise<\/i><\/a><\/i><\/p>\n

I am emotionally strongly invested in the Yes campaign for Scottish independence<\/a>. I can wish and hope for a Yes vote, and try to persuade wherever I can. But in order to believe<\/em> that Yes will win, one also<\/em> has to believe that the current opinion polls are completely wrong.<\/p>\n

I’m not naive: it’s a stretch. In retrospect it may seem almost delusional. But there is precendent for this in recent Scottish politics: in the 2011 election, the SNP was not predicted to win as large a share of the vote as actually happened<\/a>. Could the same be happening now? I don’t know, but I’m finding James Kelly’s political and polling analysis blog Scot Goes Pop!<\/a> fascinating reading. He is a Yes supporter, but his insights are rational. At this point, I can’t believe<\/em> Yes will win, but he is helping to keep my hope alive.<\/p>\n

Here he is talking about the polling methodologies and the history of Scottish devolution votes:<\/p>\n